Will Israel go to war in Lebanon? Saturday’s attack and what might come next, explained

By Ben Sales

(JTA) — On Saturday, a conflict that has been heating up for 10 months neared the verge of exploding into all-out war when a suspected Hezbollah missile killed 12 children and teens on a soccer field in Israel.

The attack plunged Israel into mourning and marked a major escalation in what has already been a deadly battle on its northern border. While Israel has signaled that its response will be limited, the sides are edging toward a war that could put vast swaths of Lebanon as well as Israel — including the Israeli airport and its power plants — under rocket fire.

Hezbollah  — which has existed for decades and last fought with Israel in 2006 — began firing missiles at Israel’s north following Hamas’ Oct. 7 invasion, prompting Israeli reprisals. Hundreds of people — mostly combatants — have been killed in Israel and Lebanon, and tens of thousands more have been displaced.

As the fighting has gone on, both Israel and Hezbollah have warned of widespread destruction if the skirmishes become a full-scale war. Now, the chances of such a war are higher than ever.

“These children are our children; they are the children of us all,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the site of the attack in the Druze town of Majdal Shams. “The State of Israel will not, and cannot, ignore this. Our response will come and it will be severe.”

Here’s what to know about the conflict on Israel’s northern border, and what could happen next.

How did we get here?

Hezbollah and Israel have fought, on and off, for four decades.

Hezbollah is a Shiite Islamist group funded by Iran that the United States, Israel and several European countries have designated as a terror organization. It was founded in the wake of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which targeted the Palestine Liberation Organization there.

Following that war, Israeli forces remained in southern Lebanon, and faced Hezbollah attacks. The group also bombed a U.S. Marines barracks in Lebanon in 1983, killing 241 troops and prompting the withdrawal of American forces from the country.

Israel withdrew unilaterally from Lebanon in 2000, but its clashes with Hezbollah have continued since, erupting once before into war. Hezbollah is sworn to Israel’s destruction, and has also attacked Israeli and Jewish targets abroad — most notably the AMIA Jewish center in Buenos Aires, where a 1994 bombing killed 85 people.

Hezbollah also has a political party that plays a major role in Lebanese politics, delivers social services and has created what some call a “state within a state.” Some entities, such as the European Union, consider Hezbollah’s military wing a terror group, but not the political party.

What has Hezbollah done since Oct. 7?

On Oct. 8, shortly after Hamas invaded Israel, Hezbollah began firing missiles and shooting projectiles across Israel’s northern border.

Since then, the terror group has launched thousands of attacks — firing 1,000 missiles in May alone. The attacks have devastated the small Israeli towns on the border and driven tens of thousands of civilians to evacuate under government order. Israeli troops have massed on the Lebanese border.

Dozens of Israeli civilians, and 18 Israeli soldiers, have been killed in the attacks. Israel has responded by bombing Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon and Syria, killing hundreds of the group’s fighters, some of its leaders and dozens of civilians. Tens of thousands of people in southern Lebanon have likewise evacuated.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a November speech that the purpose of the attacks was to distract Israeli forces as they fought Hamas, an ideological relative of Hezbollah.

“Every day, we have been targeting Israeli soldiers, tanks, drones and sensors, the eyes and ears of Israel,” Nasrallah said. “Our operations on the border have forced the IDF to divert forces, weapons and equipment from Gaza and the West Bank to the Lebanese front.”

Israeli leaders have repeatedly warned that continued attacks could lead to a bombardment of Lebanon.

“If Hezbollah chooses to start an all-out war, it will by its own volition turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis,” the Gaza city where Israeli troops were battling, Netanyahu said in an address to troops in December.

What happened on Saturday?

On Saturday evening, a missile fired from Lebanon struck a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the northern tip of the Golan Heights. It killed 12 people, all between the ages of 10 and 20.

Hezbollah denies shooting the rocket but earlier took responsibility for a volley of fire to the same area. According to Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources, the rocket that struck the field was made by Iran and is used only by Hezbollah.

The funerals of most of the victims took place Sunday, sinking Majdal Shams, a town of more than 10,000, into mourning. Israel conquered the Golan Heights in 1967 and later annexed it, and though many of the Druze in the Golan have retained Syrian citizenship, Israelis have claimed the population as their own and grieved alongside it.

“The terrible and shocking disaster in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the north of Israel is truly heartbreaking,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said Saturday. “The State of Israel will firmly defend its citizens and its sovereignty.”

Have Hezbollah and Israel fought before?

The last major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in 2006, when Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. In the ensuing war, more than 100 Israeli soldiers and hundreds of Hezbollah fighters were killed, in addition to dozens of Israeli civilians and more than 1,000 Lebanese civilians.

In Israel, the monthlong war is widely considered, in the words of Haaretz correspondent Amos Harel, a “resounding failure” owing to its high death toll and because Hezbollah remained intact afterward.

In 2011, the Syrian civil war broke out, and Hezbollah forces went to Syria to shore up dictator Bashar al-Assad, an ally. Since then, Israel has bombed countless Hezbollah weapons convoys in Syria and Lebanon, often not taking responsibility.

Who is on Hezbollah’s side?

Hezbollah is often thought of first and foremost as an Iranian proxy. It is funded and trained by Iran and shares its ideological goals and alliances.

Hezbollah is also one of the largest threats Israel has faced alongside Hamas, which is also funded by Iran. Nasrallah framed the current bombing campaign as a show of solidarity with Hamas.

But other threats have also emerged in the wake of Saturday’s attack. Following Israeli threats after the bombing, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan floated the prospect of invading Israel — an extraordinary statement from a member of the NATO alliance.

What will Israel do now?

Israeli officials have promised a harsh response to the bombing, and some politicians are agitating for the all-out war that has appeared on the doorstep for months. Avigdor Liberman, a hawkish opposition lawmaker, tweeted regarding Nasrallah, “the time has come for him to pay the price.”

“We are nearing a full war against Hezbollah and will respond to this incident accordingly,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Israeli media. “There will be costs to the front, and there will be costs to the home front, but we are at a turning point.”

A recent poll, taken before the Majdal Shams attack, found that 41% of the Israeli public supports a “broader military operation” in Lebanon.

Israel has reportedly begun bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in response, but there are indications that its response may be restrained. An anonymous Israeli diplomatic source told Reuters, “The estimation is that the response will not lead to an all-out war.” The source added, “That would not be in our interest at this point.”

Does Hezbollah want war?

Hezbollah’s assessment appears to be similar. While the group has bombed Israel on a near-daily basis for close to a year, it is perceived to want a limited conflict and has said it would abide by an Israeli ceasefire with Hamas.

“Nasrallah has stressed in public statements that Hezbollah does not plan a broader war,” read a March brief by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Hezbollah cares about its constituents and recognizes that a repeat of the 2006 war, let alone something much worse, would be a disaster for these supporters,” the brief said. “In recent years, Lebanon’s economy has plummeted, and Hezbollah does not want to take the blame for a war that would further devastate the country.”

But the group has also begun moving some of its missiles in preparation for a war with Israel, according to Haaretz.

What would a war in the north look like — and how would it affect the war in Gaza?

If war does break out, it would almost certainly not be limited to Israel’s north. Israel would likely make good on its vows to bombard Lebanon, as it has done in two previous wars. A considerable portion of the Israeli army is already on the northern border.

Hezbollah is a much bigger force than Hamas, with more than 30,000 soldiers and an estimated 150,000 missiles. It has often boasted of being able to hit urban centers throughout Israel, including the country’s crowded central district.

That would mean virtually no place in Israel would be a safe haven, and critical infrastructure would be at risk. Some Israelis have begun preparing for that scenario, clearing out safe rooms and stockpiling supplies. The largest hospital in Israel’s northern port city of Haifa has an extensive underground ward that can be used as a shelter and to keep the hospital running in case of war.

A broader war in Lebanon would also mean a shift of focus, to some extent, from Israel’s war in Gaza. Ceasefire negotiations in that war are ongoing, and an Israeli operation in Lebanon would almost certainly complicate those prospects.

What are U.S. officials saying?

The White House also blamed Saturday’s attack on Hezbollah and expressed support for Israel but said it was working to deescalate tensions on the border, referred to as the Blue Line. Those efforts to avoid war have reportedly intensified since the attack.

“Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah,” National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement. “The United States is also working on a diplomatic solution along the Blue Line that will end all attacks once and for all, and allow citizens on both sides of the border to safely return to their homes.”

An aide to Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, likewise said, “Israel continues to face severe threats to its security, and the vice president’s support for Israel’s security is ironclad.”

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, condemned “the evil attack on Israel that took place today,” and blamed the Biden administration for it.